Firoz.T.Totanawala The Bangalore Metro Reporter VOTING TIME? Possible Dissolution of Assembly, Elections in February?

By Firoz.T.Totanawala

The Bangalore Metro Reporter

VOTING TIME? 

Possible Dissolution of Assembly, Elections in February? 

With the onset of the Aaya Ram - Gaya Ram season, it is becoming distinctly clear that the Assembly may be dissolved soon. In all likelihood, the Election Commission may hold the elections in February next year unless the centre opts for President’s rule for six months. In fact, all the parties except BJP are favouring elections. The Congress has started engineering defections from other parties. B.S.Yeddyurappa is making all out efforts to snatch as many leaders from BJP and other parties as possible.

December 9th, is the D-Day for both BJP and B.S.Yeddyurappa. On this day, Yedurappa will hold a rally in Haveri to officially launch his Karnataka Janatha Party. The rally is his show of strength and many ministers, MLAs, MPs are expected to attend the rally. At the same time, the BJP is bracing itself to contain the situation with State BJP President K.S. Eshwarappa asking the ministers and legislators to resign from their posts before taking part in the rally. In a way, the BJP is resigned to the fate of losing the government. If all goes according to the game plan, the BJP may expel the leaders who participate in the rally even if it meant the end of its government.

The Congress is fully energetic more so with the entry of SM Krishna to the state politics. It is engineering defections from other parties. The other day, the Congress claimed that it had sent the proposal to the high command for admission of over a dozen BJP MLAs and even JD(S) MLAs into the party! The Congress, this time hopes to get to the power by default and that is why it is pressing for early elections. There are also rumours of few Congress leaders holding discussions with KJP to join the bandwagon of Yedurappa.

The BJP too has already geared up for the elections. The uncertainty over Yedurappa’s desertion from the party is over. They have resigned to Yedurappa leaving the party and are busy activating their leaders and cadres. They knew very well that even if Yedurappa was leading its election campaign, the party cannot come to power. Without Yedurappa, they could display some sort of a clean party image notwithstanding the fact that more than 15 Ministers are facing corruption charges in various courts and 13 ministers have to go because of serious charges, over the last four years. The exit of Yedurappa may not harm the party substantially as most of Yedurappa’s loyalists who are joining him in KJP are not physically from BJP. They were all defectors from other parties procured by Yedurappa through the Operation Kamala. As on now BJP will be lucky if it gets 40-50 seats.

The JD(S) on the other hand is also already in the election mode since six months. Its star campaigner HD Kumaraswamy is touring the North Karnataka area extensively bringing back old party leaders to the party fold. In fact, the JD(S) had already decided on the candidates of over 120 constituencies. It is holding mammoth conventions at divisional levels and is concentrating on ‘regional party’ plank.

The BSR Congress floated by B.S.Sriramulu and backed by the Reddy Brothers is also in favour of early elections. B.Sriramulu, the founder of the party is touring the state extensively concentrating on back-ward class votes. The party will get a shot in the arm if it is able to get Janardhana Reddy on bail. It is a well known fact that a couple of BJP MLAs and MPs have completely identified with BSR Congress. Sriramulu wants to prove his hold on few districts like, Bellary, Raichur, Gadag, Chitradurga etc, where his Valmiki community is in majority. The Backward Class Votes are an added advantage.

Compared to all these, Yedurappa is in a mortal hurry to go to elections. He had already purchased the Karnataka Janata Party and wants to show his hold on the masses in the elections. It is another matter that Yedurappa had planned to form the regional party the moment he was asked to resign the CM post on corruption charges. Now that KJP is a reality, he does not want any delay in holding the elections. He may, in frustration, ask his loyalist ministers and legislators to come out of BJP and topple the government. He is under the impression that he will get the whole of lingayat vote bank. He is also trying to woo the minorities and backward classes by promising them large number of tickets.

Except BJP which has conceded defeat half heartedly, all other parties are rearing to go the elections. One can be sure of Yedurappa toppling the government after 9th December. Even otherwise, the governor will come into the picture if the present stalemate continues. One can also be sure of the Chief Minister recommending dissolution of the Assembly if Yedurappa tries to topple the government. Before recommending the dissolution, Jagadish Shettar will have to dismiss the Yedurappa loyalist ministers from the cabinet so that he could pass the dissolution resolution in the cabinet. The Governor will not say ‘no’ to the dissolution recommendations.

And the question is whether there will be immediate elections or a long stint of President’s rule in the state? In all probability, the President’s rule will be a short term affair. In that case, elections are bound to be held in February, as March and April are inconvenient because of academic examination etc. It is another matter that the Election commission may hold the elections six months earlier to the expiry of the term of the Assembly. That is all.