The Bangalore Metro Reporter
POLITICALLY CORRECT!
L.K.ADVANI’S RECENT POLITICAL ASSESSMENT SOUNDS RIGHT!
The recent assessment of L.K.Advani about the possibility of a non Congress and non BJP leader becoming the PM after 2014 polls has received mixed responses. But the fact remains that Advani is right on dot with his political assessment. The Congress naturally ridiculed him for conceding BJP defeat even before preparing for electoral battle. The BJP on its part has not taken any official line over his remarks.
Both, Congress leading the UPA and BJP leading the NDA is sure of victory in 2014 elections. It is natural as nobody goes to polls to lose. These parties have also tied up with regional parties who have no reservations and may join any ally depending on the need and equations in the states.
Advani recently remarked that there is a possibility of a non-Congress and non-BJP leader becoming the PM after 2014 polls. With his remark, he apparently meant that the BJP has utterly failed to capitalise on the failures of UPA-2 to mould the public opinion against the UPA.
The UPA government has not satisfied the common man by bringing down the prices to a reasonable level. Rather, it is spending lakhs of crores towards cheap and populist scheme gimmicks like Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee scheme subsidy to the BPL etc. which has become money spinners to unscrupulous politicians and corrupt babus. On the contrary, if these lakhs of crores are utilised to fund self employment in rural areas by encouraging handicrafts, micro industries etc. and providing a fair market to the products, people would have immensely benefitted.
Whatsoever, if the elections are held in the near future, there is bound to be a political crisis as both the leading parties along with their alliances are facing crisis individually and collectively both at state and central level.
The Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has already requested Sonia Gandhi to relieve him from the PM post and he may retire from politics before 2014, if not earlier. The Congress is now looking at Rahul Gandhi, but his track record is not encouraging. The Congress may also pump in the services of Sonia Gandhi’s daughter Priyanka Vadra, but only time will tell whether she can successfully pull the threads for Congress.
The Congress allies in UPA are also playing truant. The TMC of Mamata Bannerji has almost severed its ties. The same is the case with NCP of Sharad Pawar which, the other day, had almost withdrawn out of the government and retraced the decision at the last minute. The DMK of M.Karunanidhi may continue but it will not benefit either of the parties. By all accounts, the Congress is going to the election battle with crippled legs. It will be a miracle if it retains its present strength.
And what about the BJP led NDA? The BJP, a holding political outfit of RSS, does not have inspiring leadership as their tall leader L.K.Advani has been totally sidelined. The BJP’s national President Nitin Gadkari has not shown any leadership qualities and yet, he is nominated a President for the second term by the RSS going to the extent of amending the constitution of the party. Gadkari has failed to contain indiscipline, revolt by party leaders both at state and central level. Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley etc. are mere orators and not leaders and cannot win seats for the BJP. In many of the BJP strong hold state, there is severe infighting. In Gujarat, Keshubhai Patel has resigned and floated his own party. Former CM Vasundharaje Scindia too does not care for the High Command. In Karnataka, the BJP has changed three CMs in a matter of one year. It had kneeled before former CM Yeddyurappa and at his instance, removed Sadananda Gowda who was doing a good job as CM. This alone speaks volumes about the quality of BJP leadership.
What about the NDA allies? The BJD of Naveen Patnaik in Orissa has already severed its alliance two years back. The JD(U) of Nitish Kumar which is ruling in Bihar with BJP, is also moving away from BJP. In the Presidential elections, it voted for Congress candidate Pranab Mukherji. In fact, Nitish Kumar has threatened to severe the links if BJP projects Gujarat CM Narendra Modi as the PM candidate in the 2014 elections. The Shiva Sena is feeling uncomfortable in the BJP’s company in recent times. The BJP may eye Jayalalitha’s AIADMK in TN, but here too, nobody can read Jayalalitha’s mind. Jayalalitha was an ally of NDA and she withdrew the support on flimsy ground and saw the toppling of Vajpayee government.
The biggest challenge facing the BJP led NDA is the PM candidate. L.K.Advani may not lead the campaign as the PM candidate and there is limited choice for BJP to go to polls without PM candidate or project Narendra Modi as the PM candidate. If Narendra Modi is projected as the PM candidate, Nitish Kumar will surely pull out from NDA. In fact, the JD(U) is demanding Nitish Kumar as the PM candidate. By all accounts, the NDA will be lucky if it can manage its present strength.
So, neither Congress nor BJP leading UPA and NDA respectively is in a position to get a majority in the 2014 elections. It is this hard reality that Advani has brought to focus in his assessment of the political situation.
What about the Third Front which may be formed by regional parties which are not in UPA or NDA? The left front may take the lead with SP, BSP, TDP, JDS and other parties forming the Third Front. Even AIADMK may join them. In the event of UPA-NDA not getting majority, they have to look to the Third Front support for formation of the government. And the Third Front may even demand the PM post with either UPA or NDA giving outside support or participatory support.
It is this scenario that Advani had tried to put before the nation. Arguably, nobody can predict the political developments in the next one and half years, but Advani’s assessment was based on practical and ground reality. His assessment cannot be faulted.
And that is all.
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